9-20-2008 It Appears The Surge Was a Waste of Effort
Ethnic cleansing happens; it's defensible to cynically say that it's what people naturally do when the the central government isn't around to keep the peace.
Well, that appears to be the case what happened in pre-surge Baghdad neighborhoods. UCLA satellite imageryused to count Bagdhad neighborhood street lights indicates Sunni neighborhoods had been emptied of their civilian populations prior to the arrival of US troops post-surge. In short, the Shiites waged a successful campaign to purge Sunnis from neighborhoods the US policy-makers had targeted for stabilization via increased military patrols.
From a the UsaToday article, "By the launch of the surge, many of the targets of conflict had either been killed or fled the country, and they turned off the lights when they left." My mother had always told me turn off the lights when you leave a room to conserve energy, so I guess there are no exceptions to that rule.
But, as the study postulates, while the debate to fund a surge continued in the US Congress, the Shiites were already emerging as the victors. By the time the US troops arrived, the battle was over. Because the ethnic fighting had already run its course, the violence had quelled, and hawkish US policy-makers took credit for the decreased post-surge violence.
Anecdotal evidence supports this assertion, and editorial analysishad long ago reached the same conclusion as the satellite imagery.
Eric Jahn Blog

